And Walker's comparison to Dukakis is false. Dukakis lost 12 points to George Bush Sr. because he has as much charisma as a turd. The closer you look at Dukakis, the more you want to look away. Obama is the exact opposite. In side-by-side comparisons with McCain, Obama will look inspirational, and McCain will look like someone's crazy old grandpa. Who just might shoot you.
If Obama can beat Clinton, after being down 30 pts, he can beat McCain when he is up 4. Especially with a dispirited, frustrated republican base.
| RCP Average | 02/07 - 02/20 | - | 43.0 | 47.2 | 9.0 | Obama +4.2 |
| FOX News | 02/19 - 02/20 | 900 RV | 43 | 47 | 10 | Obama +4.0 |
| Hotline/FD | 02/14 - 02/17 | 803 RV | 40 | 48 | 9 | Obama +8.0 |
| Reuters/Zogby | 02/13 - 02/16 | 928 LV | 40 | 47 | 13 | Obama +7.0 |
| USA Today/Gallup | 02/08 - 02/10 | 706 LV | 46 | 50 | 4 | Obama +4.0 |
| AP-Ipsos | 02/07 - 02/10 | 1,029 A | 42 | 48 | 8 | Obama +6.0 |
| Time | 02/01 - 02/04 | 958 LV | 41 | 48 | 6 | Obama +7.0 |
3 comments:
Mark -
The simple fact is that Obama and McCain being this close in head-to-head matchups is not a good sign for "the long haul". Democrats always have more enthusiasm this far out. Republicans tend to be "sleeping giants" and roar to victory at the end.
What should scare Obama-ites, however, is how bad he's doing vs. Obama is critical, swing states like Florida:
"Florida: McCain Leads Clinton and Has Bigger Lead Over Obama (16 points)
Rasmussen ^
Posted on 02/18/2008 1:55:58 PM PST by bshomoic
Florida 2008 Presidential Election
Florida: McCain Leads Clinton and Has Bigger Lead Over Obama
Monday, February 18, 2008
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Florida shows John McCain holding a six-percentage point lead over Hillary Clinton and an even larger lead—sixteen percentage points—over Barack Obama. It’s McCain 49% Clinton 43% and McCain 53% Obama 37%. This dynamic is the opposite of what we have found in most other states where Obama typically outperforms Clinton in general election match-ups.
The Florida results for a Clinton-McCain match-up are fairly similar to other battleground states--the race is competitive, Clinton does better among women than men, and McCain leads among unaffiliated voters."
Like always its going to come down to Ohio, Florida, etc. McCain is killing him here. Bad omen, dude. And Obama is going to get his record and platform scrutinized like he never has. He's at the high-water mark, dude. The guy has NEVER had a negative ad run against him. Never!! Wait and see…...
I think if you were Hillary Clinton, you wouldn't be talking this nonsense about "high-water marks". Every time she expected him to crest, she got swamped.
He is doing well in other battleground states besides Ohio, such as Minnesota, Colorado, Oregon and Virginia. Obama can not only turn VA dem, I think he can take other southern states - the ones with huge black populations.
You are not the only person to falsely think it will come down to two big states like Ohio and Florida. Clinton and Giuliani thought that too, and look where they are now.
But I don't want you to give up hope. There is a lot of running left to do.
Well said!
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